I have been utilizing Linux since earlier than it was cool. Again then, Linux was so obscure that it did not even register on any market share metric. Since then, it is grown at such a snail’s crawl tempo that it gave everybody all of the doubt they wanted that Linux would ever be taken critically.
That is why when StatCounter reported that Linux had reached a 4.45% market share for international desktop working methods in July, these of us who’ve been championing Linux for all these years raised up a mighty “Huzzah!” in celebration.
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Anybody who follows such traits might be laughing at such a low share, however for many who’ve been utilizing Linux for the reason that early days, that quantity represents a transparent indicator of issues to return.
In the event you have a look at the previous 12 months (from July 2023 to July 2024), you see that Linux began at 3.12%, noticed a reasonably regular climb up (with only a few small dips on the way in which), and it wasn’t till February that it lastly broke 4% (at 4.03). This upward pattern ought to proceed and is most certainly powered by customers changing into disheartened by the Home windows OS (and the looming end of support for Windows 10) and the rising value of Apple {hardware}.
It is also unattainable to disregard Steam Deck’s position on this. Steam Deck is a handheld gaming machine that’s powered by Linux. That, together with the elevated user-friendliness of Steam on Linux, has led to the rising variety of video games that may be performed on the open-source working system. Many people have believed (for years) that video games could be key to furthering Linux adoption on the desktop.
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Ought to this pattern proceed, it isn’t a stretch to imagine Linux will lastly break the 5% mark earlier than the tip of the 12 months (particularly when the vacations arrive and extra Steam Decks are bought).
One other factor to recollect is that monitoring Linux market share is not fairly so simple as it appears. Stat Counter collects knowledge via web site trackers. Many Linux customers are very privacy-centric, so a whole bunch of hundreds of Linux cases may go undetected as a result of customers have adopted anti-tracking measures.
And contemplating that Linux has greater than double the market share of Chrome OS, it isn’t a stretch to imagine Linux will proceed climbing.
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I’d not be stunned if Linux lastly catches as much as MacOS by the tip of 2025, particularly given the MacOS market share continues on a downward trajectory, peaking at 21.01% in November 2023 and dropping to a shocking 14.92% in July 2024. Linux’s trajectory is likely to be sluggish, however it’s been pretty regular, so hold watching these numbers, and also you may end up shocked someday round Q3 of 2025.
Mark my phrases.